(C) Economy Middle East

SEOUL — South Korea’s economy is expected to remain stuck in a low-growth trap of around 1% for the foreseeable future, according to a recent survey of 100 prominent economists conducted by the Korea Enterprises Federation (KEF).

The Growth Forecast: A "Stagnation Trap"
The survey paints a cautious picture of the nation’s mid-to-long-term economic health.

Persistent Low Growth: 54% of respondents believe the economy will sustain a 1% growth rate for the time being.
Delayed Recovery: Only 36% expect a recovery to the 2% range by 2027.
2026 Outlook: The average growth forecast for this year stands at 1.8%, falling short of the government’s 2.0% target.

External Pressures: U.S. Protectionism
The "America First" tariff policies continue to loom large over the export-dependent economy.

Negative Impact (58%): Experts cited reduced exports to the U.S. and shrinking domestic investment as primary risks.
Positive Outlook (35%): A minority pointed to potential benefits from an expanded U.S. market and a strengthened KOR-US alliance.

Critical Policy Urgent: Tech Protection & Labor Reform
There is an overwhelming consensus on the need for legislative action to protect national interests.

Technology Leakage: A staggering 87% of economists demanded urgent legislation to prevent the overseas leak of core technologies (e.g., semiconductors and shipbuilding), with 72% labeling it "extremely urgent."
Labor Market: 80% of experts emphasized the need for flexible working hours and a performance-based wage system to improve structural efficiency.

AI as the "Silver Bullet"
Despite the gloomy growth forecasts, economists see a beacon of hope in Artificial Intelligence.

92% of respondents agreed that the widespread adoption of AI will be the key to solving structural issues such as a shrinking workforce and slowing productivity.