(C) KAOHOON INTERNATIONAL
 

LONDON—The Bank of England (BOE), through its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), voted narrowly on November 6 to keep its benchmark interest rate at 4.00%, marking the second consecutive meeting without a change. The decision, though anticipated by some market analysts, arrived with a split vote and strong forward guidance, suggesting that further rate reductions are likely if the deceleration in inflation continues to solidify.

The current rate of 4.00% is the lowest level since February 2023, following a series of five rate cuts implemented between August of last year and August of this year. However, the MPC's decision was not unanimous. The vote tally was a close 5-4, with five members, including BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, opting for the hold, while four others favoured an immediate 25 basis point cut to 3.75%. This narrow margin highlights the growing division within the committee regarding the appropriate timing for further policy easing.

Governor Andrew Bailey, in a statement accompanying the decision, articulated the delicate balancing act faced by policymakers: managing the risk of persistently above-target inflation against the counter-risk of economic demand weakening too much and driving inflation significantly below the 2% target. Bailey indicated that gradual additional reductions would be probable "if inflation is on a normal trajectory."

Indeed, the BOE signalled optimism, officially stating in its communiqué that Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is now "judged to have peaked" and is likely to continue on a "gradual downward path." This forward guidance significantly boosts market expectations for a rate cut at the December meeting.

Despite this positive outlook, the UK's inflation challenge remains notable. At 3.8% in September, the CPI figure was lower than the forecast of 4.0% but still nearly double the BOE's mandated 2% target and the highest among the Group of Seven (G7) major economies. Furthermore, the UK's base rate of 4.00% remains significantly higher than the Eurozone's deposit rate of 2.00%, though it is similar to the Federal Reserve’s target range of 3.75–4.00%.

In a notable shift in transparency, the BOE for the first time released individual MPC member forecasts alongside the main decision. Governor Bailey, who voted for the hold, elaborated on his position, stating that the risks surrounding medium-term inflation have become "more balanced." He stressed that a rate cut would become a clearer possibility once the "disinflation becomes more clearly established" in the period ahead. The market reaction indicates that many economists now view this "dovish hold" as a clear pre-cursor to a December rate cut, contingent on favourable economic data and the upcoming Autumn Budget's fiscal impact.