Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s push to downsize Japan's parliament is increasingly likely to become a reality within the year, according to reports by the Asahi Shimbun and other media outlets on the 26th. This momentum follows a positive stance from the opposition Democratic Party for People (DPFP) regarding a lower house downsizing bill advanced by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin no Kai).

As Japan faces anticipated population decline, its political sphere is building a consensus that the number of lawmakers should be proportionately reduced. This development is expected to carry significant implications for South Korea, which is similarly grappling with demographic crises of its own.

According to the Asahi Shimbun, the LDP, the Japan Innovation Party, and the Democratic Party for People have entered final coordination to back an LDP proposal cutting 31 seats from the House of Representatives' proportional representation block. The core proposal maintains the 289 single-member constituency seats while reducing proportional representation seats from 176 to 145. If realized, the total number of lower house seats will drop from 465 to 434. Hideki Murai, the LDP's Diet Affairs Committee Chairman, stated on public broadcaster NHK on the 25th, "We aim to submit a bill concerning the reduction of 31 lower house seats during the current extraordinary Diet session and secure its enactment."

Previously, the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party agreed to pursue lawmaker reductions after forming a coalition government in October of last year. However, smaller opposition parties—which historically rely on proportional seats due to weaker local district organizations—strongly opposed the move. In response, the LDP proposed a compromise focusing solely on cutting proportional seats, prompting a favorable reaction from the Democratic Party for People and accelerating the downsizing drive. The DPFP also argued that "reducing the fixed number of lawmakers in line with population decline is rational."

The number of Japanese lawmakers has steadily declined over time. Once standing at 511, it dropped to 500 in 1996, followed by reductions to 480 in 2000, 475 in 2014, and 465 in 2017.

However, even if the reduction bill passes the House of Representatives, cooperation from opposition parties will remain essential in the House of Councillors (upper house). While the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party hold 351 seats combined in the lower house, their combined total of 120 seats in the 248-seat upper house falls short of the 124-seat majority. With the DPFP holding 25 seats joining in, passage in the upper house becomes highly probable. The Asahi Shimbun noted, "If 31 lower house seats are eliminated, it will mark the largest single reduction in seats since the introduction of the parallel single-member district and proportional representation system in 1994."

Nevertheless, some projections suggest that if only proportional seats are slashed, certain minor opposition parties could face the threat of dissolution, leading the LDP to carefully monitor public opinion trends before pressing forward with the legislation.

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