International gold prices have surged to an all-time high, driven by the escalating 'tariff war' led by US President Donald Trump. This surge is attributed to a significant increase in investors seeking safe-haven assets amidst growing domestic and international uncertainties.
On March 13th (local time), gold futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached an intraday high of $3,001.5 per troy ounce (31.1g), surpassing the $3,000 mark for the first time. The closing price was $2,991.33 per troy ounce, a 1.5% increase from the previous day. It's important to note that the international standard unit of weight for precious metals like gold and silver is the 'troy ounce,' which differs from the commonly used US 'ounce' (28.3g).
The spot gold price also reached a new record high, closing at $2,988.95 per troy ounce, a 1.89% increase from the previous day. The spot gold price has maintained its strong upward trend, rising 27% last year and an additional 14% since the beginning of this year.
The primary driver behind the continued surge in gold prices is the intensifying tariff war between major economies, including the US, China, the European Union (EU), and Canada, characterized by retaliatory measures. This has led to increased volatility in exchange rates and stock markets, prompting investors to seek gold as a hedge against risks. The recent US consumer and producer price indices, which fell below market expectations, have also fueled expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut, further contributing to the rise in gold prices.
Suki Cooper, a precious metals analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, noted, "Factors such as continuous gold purchases by major central banks, geopolitical instability, and changes in US tariff policies are constantly stimulating gold prices." Jeon Gyu-yeon, a researcher at Hana Securities, added, "The upward trend in gold prices is likely to continue through the second quarter (April-June) as trade disputes escalate. Concerns over rising import prices are expected to increase demand for inflation hedging in countries subject to tariffs."
However, some analysts suggest that gold prices may inevitably adjust if the tariff war eases. David Wilson, a commodity investment strategist at BNP Paribas, stated, "The gold market will reflect the trade risks led by President Trump. However, if trade tensions do not continuously escalate, the potential for further gold price increases in the second half of the year (July-December) may be limited."
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