Baku/Yerevan – Despite the recent announcement that Armenia and Azerbaijan have finalized the text of a peace treaty, Azerbaijan's rhetoric has shifted towards warnings of potential renewed conflict, casting doubt on the nation's true commitment to lasting peace.

Just as Armenia declared the treaty's completion on March 13, Azerbaijani state-aligned media, notably Caliber.az, accused Yerevan of preparing for a military offensive. The outlet claimed that Armenia's alleged arms buildup and impending mobilization of reservists in April signal imminent hostilities. This assertion comes amidst Azerbaijan's own significantly increased defense spending, which dwarfs Armenia's military budget.

The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry has also reported several border skirmishes, blaming Armenia for initiating the violence. Armenia has vehemently denied these accusations, labeling them as disinformation, and has proposed a joint mechanism to investigate ceasefire violations, a proposal that Azerbaijan has yet to address.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reiterated his government's dedication to a "peace agenda" and called for immediate consultations on the treaty's signing. However, Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry countered, accusing Yerevan of distorting realities and demanding explanations for Armenia's alleged military buildup near the border.

Baku maintains that Armenia must amend its constitution to explicitly recognize Azerbaijani sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh as a precondition for the treaty's signing. Furthermore, Azerbaijan has expressed dissatisfaction with Armenia's proposals regarding a land connection to the Nakhchivan exclave, suggesting that substantial obstacles remain.

Adding to the complexity, while state media adopts a belligerent tone, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has presented a more nuanced approach. In a recent interview, Aliyev spoke of a "relatively quiet period" and reminisced about a time when Armenians and Azerbaijanis coexisted peacefully before the Karabakh conflict. He emphasized the need for inclusive security mechanisms and urged both nations to "live in the neighborhood as we used to." Aliyev also stressed that regional stability depends on the swift signing of the peace treaty.

The contrasting messages from Azerbaijani media and its leadership highlight the fragile nature of the peace process and underscore the challenges in achieving genuine and lasting stability in the South Caucasus. The international community is closely watching as the two nations navigate these complex dynamics, hoping for a resolution that ensures peace and prosperity for the region.

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