Multiple foreign news outlets are reporting that the Donald Trump administration plans to significantly strengthen sanctions against the Cuban military with the goal of regime change in Cuba. This is part of a "maximum pressure" campaign that includes additional restrictions across various sectors such as travel, remittances, and exports. Officials within the Trump administration and Cuban-American lawmakers believe that the current Cuban communist regime is in its most vulnerable state in decades, urging an all-out effort to overthrow the government.
The Cuban economy has been in a continuous downturn for the past few years, and the health issues of the 94-year-old Raúl Castro, the President of the Council of State, are also contributing to the regime's instability. Last week, at an event in Miami, Mauricio Claver-Carone, the Trump administration's Special Envoy for Latin America, emphasized that they have "seized a historic opportunity for political opening and transition in Cuba."
Special Envoy Claver-Carone stated that they are discussing ways to update the decades-old embargo against Cuba, modeled after the extensive sanctions on Venezuela, and to close the "loopholes" that have hindered its effectiveness, thus avoiding "ebbs and flows of pressure." He pointed out, "The sanctions tools used on Cuba are very outdated. The sanctions themselves are sometimes based on old laws that have no secondary effects," and explained that the administration has already made progress in building "new, more efficient, and precise mechanisms targeting various economic sectors within the regime, especially the military."
The Cuban Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR) control a significant portion of the Cuban economy through an umbrella organization called GAESA, which operates the most profitable businesses, including a substantial part of the tourism industry. According to a 2024 Miami Herald investigation, GAESA has channeled considerable foreign currency into its own businesses. Furthermore, the military is considered the real power behind Miguel Díaz-Canel's government, leading Special Envoy Claver-Carone to add that the Trump administration plans to "leverage this pressure significantly to ensure incentives for change."
In parallel, Carlos Giménez, a Cuban-American Republican Congressman representing the Miami area extending to the Florida Keys, urged the administration last week to completely halt travel and remittances to Cuba. This measure would prohibit Cuban-Americans from visiting relatives on the island or sending them financial assistance.
Congressman Giménez also called for the suspension of all travel from Cuba to the United States and the imposition of financial sanctions, including tariffs, on countries that do not directly pay Cuban doctors in overseas medical missions, a major source of foreign currency for the Cuban government.
The Miami Herald obtained details of other measures under consideration by the Trump administration. These include revoking export licenses for American companies supplying goods to Cuba's private sector and closing U.S.-based online supermarkets that allow Cuban-Americans to directly purchase and ship food and medicine to relatives in Cuba. These measures are still in the discussion phase, and it remains uncertain how strongly the administration will try to block revenue flowing to the island. However, if some of the proposed ideas are implemented, they risk devastating the nascent private sector and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Cuba.
Travel and Remittance Restrictions, Deepening Humanitarian Crisis Concerns
Amid years of economic recession, Cuba is struggling with shortages of food, medicine, and essential goods, as well as poor infrastructure, severely impacting the elderly who rely on state pensions. Food shortages are particularly acute outside of Havana, especially in the rural areas of eastern Cuba. In this context, remittances and online supermarkets have served as a lifeline for many Cubans. While the government sells groceries and essential items in dollar stores, monthly salaries are around 15 dollars worth of pesos, and pensions are even lower. Some online platforms also deliver essential medicines unavailable in state-run pharmacies.
The broad restrictions under consideration by the administration could also hinder the humanitarian aid efforts of religious groups and other non-profit organizations. According to data from the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, donations to Cuba surged from $36.5 million in 2023 to $67 million last year as the situation in Cuba worsened.
Ricardo Herrero, the Executive Director of the Cuba Study Group, a Cuban-American organization based in Washington, criticized the potential measures, stating, "Closing U.S. flights and informal remittance channels will hurt innocent Cuban families far more than the communist party elite who have global connections. Prohibiting Cuban-Americans from supporting their loved ones in Cuba will not lead to the overthrow of the Cuban regime or bring about democracy. It will only incentivize migration to third countries and accelerate the island's slide into failed state status."
However, in a Fox News interview, Congressman Giménez referred to the money sent from Miami to relatives in Cuba as a "cash cow" for the Havana regime to fund its repressive apparatus, expressing hope that if this income is cut off, Cubans will rise up and overthrow the government.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio had already taken action to prohibit companies controlled by the Cuban military from partnering with Western Union to process remittances, leading the American giant to withdraw from Cuba. The Miami Herald reported that a similar measure against another military-linked company during the first Trump administration caused significant losses to the military's economic sector. However, investigations revealed that most Cuban-Americans bypassed Western Union and instead sent money to relatives through smaller, informal remittance agencies or individuals known as "mulas" (mules) who physically carry cash.
John Kavulich, the President of the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, predicted that a return to the strict travel and remittance restrictions of the first Trump administration would have a "significant impact" on the Cuban government. At that time, the U.S. canceled flights to cities other than Havana and limited the amount of money that could be sent to relatives to $1,000 per quarter. Kavulich added that further travel restrictions would deter travelers seeking to avoid censorship and reduce the flow of money carried by mules. "Cuba will lose revenue from visitors and remittances."
As was the case with the strong crackdowns by past administrations, these extreme measures are likely to face opposition from some Cuban-Americans in South Florida. Regular polls by Florida International University show that while many support sanctions against the Cuban government, there is consistent support for travel to Cuba and remittances.
A source familiar with Congressman Giménez's thinking said that he wants to cut off all revenue flowing to the Cuban government, and that while many Cuban-Americans want to help their families, they also want to see the end of the Cuban regime. "It's a tough balancing act," the source added.
Special Envoy Claver-Carone, who played a key role in shaping Cuba policy during the first Trump administration, did not express great enthusiasm for Congressman Giménez's proposals at the Miami event, calling them an example of "old" sanctions tools. The first Trump administration did not go as far as Congressman Giménez is currently advocating, likely to avoid the past controversies that divided the Cuban-American community in South Florida.
Cuban-Americans are debating on social media the wisdom and effectiveness of cutting off remittances at a critical time for the Cuban people. One X user with the profile "MAGA! Trump 2025" replied to a post by Congressman Giménez warning against travel or remittances to Cuba, saying, "They always benefit, and Cubans continue to starve, and our families need the little money we can send for them to eat. Overthrow the dictatorship, but don't starve our families."
Meanwhile, Cuban government officials are responding to these proposals by intensifying their accusations that the United States is trying to starve the island's population.
Sanctions and the Private Sector
U.S. officials are also exploring ways to curb the increasing trade with the United States led by Cuba's emerging private sector in recent years. According to data from the U.S.-Cuba Trade and Economic Council, exports to Cuba in February amounted to $47.6 million, a 75% increase compared to February of last year. In 2024, American companies exported $586 million worth of goods to Cuba. Of this, $433 million was food and agricultural products allowed under the Trade Sanctions Reform and Export Enhancement Act of 2000, despite the embargo.
Unlike in the past when the Cuban government was the main importer, the recent increase in trade is driven by private businesses on the island and the American exporters who sell to them. American food products are sold in private stores and privately owned restaurants on the island or delivered directly to individual homes. American companies have also been exporting a variety of goods, including automobiles, solar panels, clothing, and household items, by obtaining special government licenses or utilizing exceptions to the embargo that allow activities to "support the Cuban people." These goods are mainly imported by individual entrepreneurs residing on the island or purchased by Cuban-Americans for their relatives living there.
Executive Director Herrero stated, "Today, most of the food exported from the United States to Cuba is transported to local private businesses because the government is bankrupt and owes money to all its previous suppliers. Limiting U.S. food exports to Cuba would harm not only independent entrepreneurs but also countless Cuban families already suffering from severe food shortages."
President Kavulich predicted that while a ban on U.S. food exports would be difficult because it requires legislative changes, the revocation of licenses could be implemented more easily by the administration. Critics of companies exporting to Cuba question whether they ultimately benefit or are connected to the Cuban government. Hugo Cancio, the Cuban-American owner of the online supermarket Katapulk, has faced criticism from activists for attending events in the United States with Cuban officials, including Díaz-Canel. However, he argues that his business does not benefit the Cuban authorities beyond the customs duties paid to Cuban customs.
Cancio explained that approximately 20% of the food and goods sold on Katapulk are purchased in the United States and shipped to Cuba, where private companies responsible for delivery handle them. The remaining 80% is supplied by independent private businesses within Cuba that offer their products on the online platform. "We have no relationship with the Cuban government. We do not sell to the Cuban state, we do not have contracts with government entities, and we pay nothing to the government except customs duties," Cancio emphasized. He added that if the Trump administration shuts down online grocery sellers, it will be Cuban families, not the government, who will suffer.
President Kavulich predicted that the restrictions imposed by the Trump administration due to increased trade could provoke opposition from more American companies in various states. However, Special Envoy Claver-Carone suggested that the administration is prepared to implement unpopular policies with high expectations of achieving results soon. At the Miami event, he stated firmly, "There will still be disagreements. There are always commercial interests. But it will be short-term pain for long-term gain, or it will be long-term pain with no gain. So we have to go all in. Go big, or go home."
From a comprehensive perspective, the Trump administration's plan to intensify sanctions against Cuba is interpreted as an attempt to maximize pressure on the Cuban regime to bring about regime change. However, concerns are being raised that these harsh measures could further worsen the Cuban economy and deepen the humanitarian crisis. Furthermore, within the Cuban-American community, opinions are divided on the effectiveness and humanitarian impact of the sanctions, suggesting significant controversy in the policy implementation process. The future direction of U.S.-Cuba policy remains to be seen.
[Copyright (c) Global Economic Times. All Rights Reserved.]
