ISTANBUL – Scientists from NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) have definitively dismissed the risk of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032. After months of fluctuating predictions, the latest analyses have reduced the impact probability to a negligible 0.001 percent.   

The near-Earth asteroid, estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, was initially detected in late 2023 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Chile. Early trajectory calculations presented a range of potential outcomes, with impact probabilities briefly reaching nearly 3 percent.   

However, subsequent observations from the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope (ESO’s VLT) and other global observatories have significantly refined the asteroid’s orbital path. These new data confirm that 2024 YR4 will safely pass Earth on December 22, 2032.

“That’s the outcome we expected all along, although we couldn’t be 100 percent sure,” stated Paul Chodas, head of NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, in an email to Fast Company.   

ESO astronomer Olivier Hainut explained the initial uncertainty, noting, “Because of the uncertainties, the orbit of the asteroid is like the beam of a flashlight: getting broader and broader and fuzzier in the distance. As we observe more, the beam becomes sharper and narrower. The narrower beam is now moving away from Earth.”   

This confirmation follows a typical pattern in asteroid tracking, where initial impact probabilities often decrease as more precise data become available. The International Asteroid Warning Network has concluded its activities related to 2024 YR4, and ESA has downgraded it to Level 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.   

While the threat to Earth has been eliminated, NASA scientists have identified a 1.7 percent chance of the asteroid impacting the Moon on December 22, 2032, a probability expected to decrease with further observations.   

Experts emphasize the ongoing importance of planetary defense and the need for continuous monitoring of potentially hazardous objects. “With the deployment of new asteroid survey technologies, such as ESA’s Flyeye telescopes, we are likely to detect an increasing number of similar objects passing close to Earth that we would have missed in the past,” ESA stated.

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