Global Financial Bodies Lift China's 2025 Economic Outlook

(C) Global TImes

Several major international financial institutions, including the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), have recently revised their forecasts for China's economic growth upward for the current year. This coordinated adjustment suggests a growing recognition of China's pivotal role as a stabilizing force in the global economy, driven primarily by effective stimulus measures and a resilient export performance.

On December 11, the World Bank announced it was raising its projection for China's 2025 growth rate to 4.9%, a significant 0.4 percentage point increase from its previous outlook. The Bank attributed this stronger performance to "accommodative fiscal and monetary policies [that] supported domestic consumption and investment, and exports continued, supported by demand from developing economies." For the following year, 2026, the World Bank projects growth will moderate to 4.4%.

Despite the upward revision, the World Bank also highlighted lingering challenges. It noted that "households remain cautious about consumption amid labor market weakness and falling housing prices," and that investment growth slowed in the third quarter due to "real estate sector adjustments and a slowdown in manufacturing and infrastructure investment." The Chinese government’s official target for this year's growth remains "around 5%." While China's quarterly growth eased to 4.8% in the third quarter after posting 5.4% and 5.2% in the first two quarters, the cumulative 5.2% growth over the first three quarters was deemed robust by the World Bank. Looking ahead, the institution suggested that "China's growth in the coming years will become more dependent on domestic demand," emphasizing that structural reforms to the social protection system and a more predictable business environment are crucial for restoring confidence beyond short-term fiscal stimulus.

IMF and Other Agencies Follow Suit

The World Bank’s revised forecast is part of a broader trend among major organizations. Just the day prior, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had already raised its 2025 growth forecast for China to 5.0%, a 0.2 percentage point hike from its October prediction. The IMF also raised its 2026 forecast by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%. The IMF cited robust macro-economic stimulus and lower-than-expected tariffs on Chinese goods following a truce in the US-China trade tensions as the main factors for the upgrade. However, the IMF cautioned that systemic imbalances, including sluggish domestic demand and persistent deflationary pressures, remain problematic.

Similarly, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), as reported by the state-run Global Times, also increased its 2025 forecast from 4.7% to 4.8%, driven by strong exports and the effects of stimulus packages. The ADB kept its 2026 projection unchanged at 4.3%. Meanwhile, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on December 2 raised its China growth outlook for 2025 to 5.0%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from its September forecast. Furthermore, the financial firm Standard Chartered also boosted its 2026 growth forecast for China from 4.3% to 4.6%, citing increases in total factor productivity and a healthy export trajectory.

Yu Miaojie, President of Liaoning University, commented on the trend, stating, "This shows that these international organizations recognize China as a stable anchor for world economic growth."

The consensus among global economic bodies on the upward revision underscores that despite structural challenges in the property sector and cautious household spending, the Chinese economy is demonstrating greater near-term resilience than previously anticipated, largely due to targeted government intervention and enduring global demand for its exports.