TEHRAN/MUSCAT – Two months into the escalating military conflict between Iran and the U.S.-Israel alliance, the Strait of Hormuz has turned into a high-stakes maritime gauntlet. Despite the de facto blockade and the constant threat of seizure, nearly 200 merchant ships have successfully navigated their way out of the Gulf, choosing a "life-risking escape" over being trapped in the middle of a war zone.

According to the latest data from maritime analytics firm AXS Marine, reported by AFP on May 1st, the number of merchant vessels remaining in the Gulf has dropped significantly. As of April 29, the count stood at 913, an 18% decrease from the 1,114 ships recorded on February 28, just after the conflict erupted. This exodus of roughly 200 vessels highlights the desperation of shipping companies to move their assets out of the volatile region.

The Composition of the Stranded Fleet

Currently, the Gulf remains occupied by approximately 270 oil tankers and about 50 LNG/LPG carriers, reflecting the ongoing disruption to global energy supplies. The number of container ships—vital for the transport of daily necessities and industrial components—has dwindled from 155 to 118, as operators prioritize the evacuation of high-value cargo.

Stealth Navigation and High-Seas Peril

The escape comes at a heavy price. Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), the world’s largest shipping line, reportedly attempted to move four of its vessels; however, two were seized by Iranian forces during the transit.

To evade detection and avoid the threat of Iranian boarding parties, many captains have resorted to "dark shipping" tactics. The percentage of vessels turning off their GPS-based Automatic Identification System (AIS) or spoofing their locations has nearly doubled, rising from 16% before the war to 31% today. This "stealth mode" navigation significantly increases the risk of collisions in the narrow waterway but is seen by many as a necessary gamble.

Global Response: Two-Pronged Maritime Alliances

In response to the mounting crisis, the international community is racing to secure "freedom of navigation" in the world’s most critical oil chokepoint.

The Trump administration in the United States is fast-tracking the creation of the "Maritime Freedom Coalition." According to reports from the Wall Street Journal, this U.S.-led initiative focuses on intelligence sharing, diplomatic coordination, and the rigorous enforcement of sanctions against those hindering passage.

Simultaneously, a European-led effort is taking shape. During a visit to the United Arab Emirates, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot clarified that the U.S. and European plans are complementary rather than competitive. "The joint mission concept between France and the United Kingdom is in the final stages of confirmation," Barrot stated.

This Anglo-French initiative has garnered significant interest, with more than 40 countries—including South Korea—currently involved in discussions. The goal of this multinational task force is to provide a protective corridor for merchant vessels, ensuring that the global supply chain does not collapse under the weight of regional geopolitical tensions.

As the standoff continues, the Strait of Hormuz remains a focal point of global anxiety. For the crews still aboard the 913 vessels remaining in the Gulf, the decision to stay or attempt a perilous exit is a daily life-or-death calculation.

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