(C) The Hill

SEOUL — For years, South Korean consumers turned to American beef as a cost-effective alternative to the prohibitively expensive domestic Hanwoo. However, that "budget-friendly" reputation is evaporating. US beef prices are hovering near all-time highs as the American cattle inventory plummets to levels not seen in 75 years, sparking fears of a sustained spike in South Korean food inflation.

A 75-Year Low in Supply
According to recent data from Hankyung ACEL and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), live cattle prices have surged past $2.40 per pound, a significant jump from under $2.00 just a year ago. This upward trajectory has been persistent for over five years; in mid-2021, prices fluctuated between $1.00 and $1.20.

The root cause of this price surge is a severe supply crunch. A devastating drought in 2022 decimated pastures across the United States, forcing ranchers to reduce herd sizes. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the total cattle inventory as of January 1, 2026, stood at 86.2 million head—the lowest since 1951.

Failed Interventions and Market Volatility
The crisis has caught the attention of the highest levels of government. Last October, U.S. President Donald Trump criticized the "excessive" cost of beef, leading to a temporary price dip after the administration expanded beef imports from Argentina. However, the relief was short-lived. By December, prices resumed their climb, returning to record levels.

The outlook remains grim. Calf production—a key indicator of future supply—is currently at its lowest point since 1941. While the U.S. government has attempted to intervene by opening federal grazing lands and supporting ranchers, these measures have yet to yield tangible results.

"We are in a structural deficit," noted an industry insider. "Ranchers are holding back cows to rebuild their herds rather than sending them to slaughter, which further tightens the immediate supply. This cycle suggests high prices will persist well into next year."

The Impact on the Korean Market
The shockwaves from the U.S. market are hitting South Korea directly. Data from the Korea Institute for Animal Products Quality Evaluation (KAPE) shows that the average price of frozen American beef ribs rose from 3,912 KRW per 100g in 2023 to 4,466 KRW last year—a 14.1% increase.

Surprisingly, even the complete elimination of import tariffs on US beef (previously 1.2% to 4.8%) earlier this year has failed to lower consumer prices, as the rising base cost and high exchange rates have neutralized any tax benefits.

Diversification as a Survival Strategy
With U.S. beef accounting for 47.1% of South Korea’s imported meat market (approximately 220,427 tons out of 468,122 tons total), local retailers are in a state of emergency. Major supermarkets are frantically diversifying their supply chains, looking toward:

Australia and Brazil
Ireland and Canada

However, diversification offers limited protection. As the U.S. faces its own domestic shortage, American restaurant chains are outbidding international buyers for Australian beef, driving up global prices across the board.

"Between the global supply shortage and the weak Korean Won, our ability to lower prices is extremely limited," a local mart representative stated. For Korean households, the era of "cheap American beef" may be over for the foreseeable future.

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