A new study has revealed that if carbon emissions continue to rise unabated, the sea surface temperature around Jeju Island could increase by up to 4.08 degrees Celsius by 2100, and sea levels could rise by as much as 55 centimeters.

The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) released a forecast on the 26th, based on high-resolution ocean climate change scenarios, which analyzed future projections of three key ocean climate factors (sea surface temperature, surface salinity, and sea level) and marine heatwaves around the Korean Peninsula up to 2100.

The study compared and analyzed future projections of the Korean Peninsula's marine environment under low-carbon and high-carbon scenarios, using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Sixth Assessment Report.

According to the analysis, the impact of climate change on the marine climate in Jeju Island and the southwestern sea will be more severe under the high-carbon scenario compared to the low-carbon scenario.

Under the high-carbon scenario, the sea surface temperature around Jeju Island is expected to continue rising, increasing by an average of 4.08 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century compared to the recent decade.

Marine heatwaves, defined as periods of at least five consecutive days with daily average temperatures exceeding the top 10% of the 2015-2024 average, are also expected to increase significantly. By the end of the century, the number of days with marine heatwaves is projected to increase by 295.62 days compared to the recent decade, and the intensity of these events is expected to increase by 2.42 degrees Celsius.

The increasing frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves could lead to severe damage to the marine ecosystem around Jeju Island and exacerbate extreme weather events such as heatwaves.

By the end of the 21st century, sea levels around Jeju Island are projected to rise by 55 centimeters under the high-carbon scenario, 21 centimeters higher than under the low-carbon scenario.

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