With just two days left until Brazil's presidential runoff election on the 25th (local time), incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, seeking his fourth non-consecutive term, and right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro are locked in a fierce, neck-and-neck race until the very end.

While Bolsonaro, who emerged victorious in the initial first-round vote, was initially expected to have the upper hand, Lula has mounted a fierce late-stage surge, resulting in an unpredictable, ultra-tight contest.

According to a presidential candidate preference poll released on the 22nd (local time) by the polling firm Datafolha, right-wing Liberal Party (PL) candidate Flávio Bolsonaro recorded 47% support, narrowly leading incumbent President Lula of the Workers' Party (PT) at 46% by a mere 1 percentage point.

In last week's poll, Bolsonaro registered 47% and President Lula 45%, showing that the gap has narrowed even further from 2 percentage points to 1 percentage point within a single week. Consequently, the two candidates' approval ratings are virtually tied within the margin of error (±2 percentage points).

The survey showed that only 2% of voters have yet to decide on a candidate, while 5% of respondents stated they would cast blank ballots. Bloomberg reported that, excluding invalid and blank votes, the two candidates' support levels stand at around "50-50."

Bolsonaro emerged as the leading candidate after unexpectedly defeating incumbent President Lula in the first round of the presidential election on October 4.

However, President Lula capitalized on his "incumbent premium" to mount an aggressive chase. The Brazilian government recently increased the welfare allowance for low-income families, the "Bolsa Família," by 15% and decided to disburse the funds ahead of the election. Furthermore, the Brazilian Senate passed a "40-hour workweek bill"—reducing working hours from 44 to 40 hours per week—in alignment with President Lula's campaign pledges. Simultaneously, Lula's support base rallied strongly at the final hour, making the outcome impossible to call until the very end.

On the other hand, stubbornly high inflation and worsening security issues are pointed out as President Lula's weaknesses. He also faces personal judicial risks, including corruption allegations involving his son.

Bolsonaro has gained momentum by attacking the missteps of the leftist government amid the broader conservative wave sweeping Latin America. Since the democratization of Brazil in 1989, no candidate who won the first round of a presidential election has ever lost the runoff.

However, critics point out that a Bolsonaro presidency evokes a sense of repulsion among voters as a "dynastic succession." Bolsonaro is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest after being sentenced to a 27-year prison term on charges of plotting a coup. Flávio Bolsonaro has also publicly vowed to pardon his father immediately if elected president.

Moreover, Bolsonaro himself has been embroiled in various corruption allegations. He recently faced severe backlash after showing up to a TV debate with the word "corruption" written on the palm of his hand to attack President Lula.

The showdown between these two candidates holds significant meaning as an indicator of the direction of Latin America’s "Blue Tide" (the wave of right-wing governments coming to power). If Bolsonaro ultimately wins, Brazil—Latin America's largest economic powerhouse—will join other nations like Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, Colombia, and Peru in the conservative wave.

The two candidates will face off in their final TV debate on the 23rd.

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