(C) State Mirror Hindi

SEOUL – As the conflict ignited by the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran enters its second week, military analysts warn that the "winner" will not be decided by tactical brilliance alone, but by a grueling "salvo competition"—a race to see whose arsenal empties first.

Since the operation commenced on February 28, 2026, Iran and its proxies have launched over 1,000 strikes using missiles and drones, targeting a vast 2,000km radius across a dozen neighboring countries. While the U.S. and Israel have successfully neutralized hundreds of Iranian command centers and launch sites, the sheer volume of Iran’s "cheap" weaponry is beginning to strain the world’s most advanced defense systems.

A Financial and Material Imbalance The economic disparity of the war is staggering. According to Bloomberg and military experts, the U.S. and its allies are often forced to use interceptor missiles costing upwards of $4 million to take down Iranian drones that cost as little as $20,000.

"It’s a strategy of 'death by a thousand cuts,'" said Kelly Grieco, an analyst at the Stimson Center. "Iran knows that while their individual strikes might be intercepted, they are winning the war of attrition by exhausting the limited supply of high-end Western interceptors."

Allies on the Brink The pressure is most palpable among Persian Gulf allies. While nations like the UAE and Qatar have reported high interception rates—destroying over 90% of incoming threats—the consumption of munitions is unsustainable. Fabian Hoffmann of the University of Oslo warned that at the current rate of fire, these nations could exhaust their air defense inventories in less than a week. If the shields fail, critical infrastructure—including desalination plants, power grids, and oil facilities—becomes defenseless.

Washington’s Response The White House is moving to address the looming shortage. Reports suggest the Pentagon is drafting a $50 billion emergency budget to ramp up production at defense giants like Lockheed Martin and RTX (formerly Raytheon). Despite this, President Donald Trump maintained an optimistic tone in a recent interview with the New York Times, asserting that U.S. ammunition supplies remain "extraordinary" and that sustaining the offensive will "not be difficult."

However, the reality on the ground suggests a more complex calculation. If the "interceptor gap" continues to widen, Middle Eastern allies may soon pressure Washington to seek a diplomatic compromise with Tehran to prevent total regional destabilization.

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