LONDON — Russia is actively supporting China’s preparations for a potential invasion of Taiwan, providing specialized military technology, equipment, and combat-tested training, according to a recent analysis by the UK-based security think tank, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). This assistance is believed to be aimed at enhancing the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) airborne and hybrid warfare capabilities, which could significantly advance Beijing's timeline for seizing the island.
The RUSI commentary, titled "How Russia is Helping China Prepare to Seize Taiwan," is based on approximately 800 pages of leaked contractual documents and equipment lists obtained by the hacktivist group 'Black Moon'. While the documents do not directly mention Taiwan, RUSI analysts suggest the transfers are crucial for Beijing's goal of diversifying its operational options for inserting troops, an increasingly important objective given the high risks of a large-scale coastal landing operation. Chinese President Xi Jinping has reportedly ordered the PLA to be ready to militarily seize Taiwan by 2027.
Advanced Airborne and Special Forces Support
The leaked files indicate that Russia agreed in 2023 to supply the PLA with enough arms and equipment to outfit a full airborne battalion. This includes 37 units of the BMD-4M light amphibious airborne infantry fighting vehicle, 11 units of the Sprut-SDM1 self-propelled anti-tank gun, and 11 BTR-MDM Rakushka armored personnel carriers. The deal also covers specialized high-altitude parachute systems for special forces infiltration and command vehicles.
Crucially, the agreement involves comprehensive technical transfer and training. Russia is set to train PLA personnel and experts, initially in Russia using both live equipment and simulators, with follow-up training to be conducted at facilities within China. This training, according to RUSI, appears to draw on Russia's combat experience, particularly its 2014 operation to seize Crimea, and could significantly accelerate China's airborne program by 10 to 15 years.
Technical Interoperability and Long-Term Strategy
The contracts stipulate that Russian-supplied armored vehicles must be adapted to integrate with the Chinese military’s communication and command systems, indicating the PLA’s need for seamless interoperability with other Chinese units and a preference for its own superior electronic systems. A technical maintenance and repair center is also to be established in China, facilitating the future production and modernization of similar Russian equipment by Beijing.
Analysts suggest the primary value for China lies in Russia’s superior combat experience and the procedures for command and control of parachute forces. However, an expert from the Atlantic Council noted that China is likely playing a "long game," intending to reverse-engineer the acquired technology for not only airborne combat but also for the development of advanced intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities critical for modern warfare. This collaboration underscores a deepening military partnership between Moscow and Beijing, where Russia is increasingly serving as a key military-industrial supplier to China.
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